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Prediction for CME (2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-09T11:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16869/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-09T17:04Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 500
Longitude (deg): W010
Latitude (deg): S02
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Filament eruption just south and east from central meridian observed 09/1030Z. SOHO imagery suggests a wider cone angle. Later MOSWOC Enlil analyses broadly support this initial analysis, Lasco C2 perhaps shows shock and has strongly asymmetric cone (wider than high), main fit to ejecta therefore conducted on St A COR2.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 40.18 hour(s)
Difference: -12.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-05-10T13:37Z

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